Hawzah News Agency- As the energy crisis deepens, US President Donald Trump has touted diplomatic efforts to end the blockade, while also moving to deploy thousands more troops to the Middle East and looking into possible US Navy escorts for oil tankers.
But Iran still has the upper hand in many ways – in part because of its unconventional warfare methods, including cheap drones and sea mines, and in part because of its geography. Taken together, these two realities make it harder for the United States or others to defend vessels or to secure the strait militarily.
And it’s lucrative for Iran to retain control. Iranian officials have said they will continue charging fees for the safe passage of some tankers through the strait, after Lloyd’s List Intelligence released a report on March 23 saying at least two vessels had paid large sums to cross.
“It is described as a chokepoint for a good reason. There are supposedly a lot of chokepoints around the world. But you could argue that this is a uniquely challenging one, because there are no alternatives'', said Nick Childs, senior fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
“In the open ocean there is always the option of re-routing; in a chokepoint or narrow sea, that option is impossible,” said Kevin Rowlands, journal editor at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. “That means that Iran doesn’t necessarily need to seek out and find its targets. It can sit and wait''.
And analysts note that Iran doesn’t even have to destroy vessels to succeed in its goal of disrupting the global energy trade. As long as the threat remains sufficiently high, shipping companies are unlikely to take the risk of resuming transit. Some vessels with ties to Iran, China, India and Pakistan have made it through the strait, though.
Iran has said that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the strait if they coordinate with Iranian authorities. The Lloyd’s List Intelligence report said that at least 16 vessels have made it through.
Even if all tanker traffic restarts eventually, it will take time to clear the backlog: Nearly 2,000 vessels are trapped inside the Persian Gulf, according to the International Maritime Organization.
Source: CNN
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