Hawzah News Agency- In an incisive commentary, Munir Shafiq, a retired Brigadier General, former Lebanese government coordinator with the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL), and ex-head of Lebanon's Military Court, delineated the inevitable domino effect of such a war, underscoring that the Middle East is not known for contained conflicts.
"Every major confrontation there automatically turns into a series of interconnected fires," Shafiq wrote, "where chaos is exploited to reveal balances of power and forcibly impose new realities."
US Hegemonic Arrogance & Israeli Provocation as Key Drivers
The analysis posits that the United States would enter any such war with a mindset of "absolute supremacy," utilizing its ring of military bases around Iran, naval fleets on high alert, and economic sanctions as a weapon of mass destruction parallel to open warfare.
"In Washington's calculations," Shafiq notes, "the stability of countries like Lebanon is insignificant, just as their social or economic collapses are." He argues the region is treated as an "operational arena, not a mosaic of states and nations."
Within this scenario, Israel is identified not merely as a subordinate ally but as a "primary agent provoking conflict." Its security rhetoric, the analysis contends, is designed to push the US towards a confrontation with Iran, seeing it as the optimal opportunity to reshape the region by force.
"Tel Aviv knows a major war would destabilize the international order and erase political and ethical constraints, giving it significant room for maneuver under the cover of self-defense," Shafiq writes. "The real objective, however, is to impose strategic and demographic realities that would be difficult to retreat from in the future."
Lebanon & Gaza: Prime Targets in the Storm
Lebanon is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable arenas for destabilization. "A country worn out, with a collapsed economy and a deep political rift that leaves it incapable of protecting itself," Shafiq states, would see tensions on its southern border automatically escalate, placing it "in the heart of the regional deterrence equation."
Lebanon's potential involvement hinges on one critical factor: "Israel's exploitation of the widespread chaos from a major war to launch a full-scale attack against Lebanon, with the declared aim of eliminating Hezbollah as a military and political force."
Similarly, Gaza would not be exempt. A large-scale war, the analysis warns, could serve as cover for an extensive Israeli operation aimed at the "systematic destruction and forced displacement" of Gaza's population while the international community is paralyzed by the larger confrontation.
"The arenas are integrated," Shafiq argues, "within a logic of exploiting chaos rather than containing it. First Gaza, then Lebanon."
Regional Inferno: Hormuz, Oil, and Multi-Front Battlefields
On a regional level, the fire would spread rapidly. Key consequences would include:
- The Persian Gulf coming under direct threat.
- International shipping endangered.
- The strategic Strait of Hormuz being closed.
- A global oil crisis erupting.
- Iraq and Syria becoming open battlefields.
- Yemen emerging as a decisive strategic card and an additional point of pressure for the Axis of Resistance.
"Such a war has no real winner," Shafiq concludes, "only arms and energy corporations, and some politicians gambling on chaos to escape their domestic crises, would profit."
The rhetoric from Washington about stability and protecting allies, he asserts, "seems little more than a cover for power arrogance and chaos management." Israel, for its part, seeks not peace or balanced deterrence but "permanent supremacy, even at the cost of destroying what remains of regional stability and pushing the region to the brink of total collapse."
The final warning is stark: "If a war between America and Iran occurs, it will not be limited to two sides. Lebanon will be in the heart of the storm, not by its own choice, but as a victim." The escalation would be the direct result of "American arrogance, Israeli provocation, and chaos deliberately exploited to redraw maps by force." In this scenario, weaker nations would once again pay the price.
This analysis aligns with recent warnings from the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, who emphasized that any US attack on Iran would result in a regional war, underscoring the interconnected defense posture of the Resistance front.
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