Hawzah News Agency- As Iran's parliament once again takes up the Caspian Sea Legal Regime Convention, the question resurfaces: What is Iran's actual stake in the world's largest inland body of water?
Was Iran Ever Entitled to 50 Percent?
The most explosive claim circulating in Iranian public discourse is that Tehran once held 50 percent of the Caspian and has since surrendered it. But a close reading of the historical record tells a different story.
Before the Soviet Union's collapse, Iran and Moscow governed the Caspian through bilateral treaties signed in 1921 and 1940. These agreements addressed shipping, fishing, and other rights, but nowhere did they stipulate a "50 percent share" for either side. No formal boundary line was ever drawn dividing the sea into two equal halves.
What did exist was a legal interpretation favored by Tehran — that the Caspian was a condominium, a shared space with equal rights for both coastal states. This understanding later fueled the popular "50-50" narrative. But saying Iran "owned half the sea and gave it away" simply does not match the treaty texts.
Why 20 Percent?
The game changed dramatically in 1991 with the Soviet collapse. Three new coastal states — Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — emerged overnight, transforming the Caspian from a bilateral issue into a five-nation negotiation.
Iran's consistent position since then has been that the sea should be divided equally among the five littoral states: 20 percent each. This formula, Tehran argued, would honor the historical principle of shared rights while adapting to the new geopolitical reality.
Where Does 13 Percent Come From?
The 13 percent figure stems from a different calculation entirely — one based on coastline length.
Iran's Caspian coastline stretches roughly 1,000 kilometers, while the combined coastlines of all five states measure around 8,000 kilometers. Divide the seabed proportionally by coastline, and Iran's share comes to approximately one-eighth — hence the 13 percent figure.
This is not a confirmed allocation. It represents one proposed formula for dividing the seabed and subsoil, where the Caspian's vast oil and gas reserves lie. Iran has never accepted this method, insisting instead on the 20 percent equal-share principle.
What Did the Aktau Convention Actually Decide?
Signed in August 2018 in Kazakhstan, the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea does not assign percentage shares to any country. Instead, it establishes a legal framework covering territorial waters, fishing zones, shipping, security cooperation, and environmental protection.
Crucially, the convention leaves the most economically sensitive issue — delimitation of the seabed and subsoil — to future agreements between states with adjacent and opposite coasts. This means Iran's final share of underwater resources remains undetermined.
The convention does, however, deliver one significant security victory: it bars armed forces from non-littoral states from operating in the Caspian, keeping the sea under the exclusive security umbrella of the five coastal nations.
The Real Battle Is Underwater
The fixation on percentages obscures what is truly at stake. The Caspian's value lies not in its surface water but in what lies beneath — oil, gas, and strategic transit routes.
Every boundary line drawn in future seabed negotiations could determine which country controls a given energy field or economic zone. The dispute is not over numbers on a map; it is over billions of dollars in resources and geopolitical leverage.
Neither the claim that Iran "gave away 50 percent" nor the assumption that the Aktau Convention locked in 13 percent reflects reality. The genuine issue is how Iran navigates forthcoming negotiations on seabed delimitation, baseline determination, and resource exploitation.
Reducing the Caspian debate to a war of two numbers does a disservice to a complex legal and historical dossier. What Iran actually secures will depend on the rigor of its diplomacy, the strength of its legal arguments, and its ability to protect national interests in the agreements still to come.
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